In the midst of a pretty dry spell in new releases I decided to look back at an oddity that I noticed from the 2022-23 Lionel Messi soccer cards, particularly case hits. That is the print runs and prices of the Lionel Messi case hits. Doing the product reviews I already knew the print runs of most of the case hits. Now that prices have settled let’s see where we are at and if there is an opportunity. I do believe that unnumbered case hits will have their place in the soccer card hobby for a long time even if they aren’t all that beloved right now. If you look at the longer more established other sports to see what those collectors look back on and collect. That doesn’t necessarily mean this will happen, but I could certainly see the nostalgia for these being heavy for collectors that have got into the hobby since the boom which is a considerable amount of soccer card collectors.
*All of the print runs used are estimates. The Topps ones are easier to figure out as they give pack odds. Panini is a little bit harder for the ones that aren’t true case hits or that Panini. in some cases that could be less than a case hit like Prizm Color Wheel or more than a case hit like Donruss Tmall.
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Topps Lionel Messi Soccer Card Case Hits
As you probably know Topps handles case hits much worse that Panini. They just print so much more in most releases that and the case hit checklists are so small that the total number of case hits per player is way more than Panini. Panini also usually gets more credit for their case hits which I will get into later. One thing I will point out is that all of the 2022-23 Lionel Messi Topps case hit are in a PSG kit. This is just my opinion, but I think those will not be as desirable compared to his other cards over time.
2022-23 Topps Chrome Joga Bonito Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~1250 Total PSA Graded – 74 PSA 10 Pop – 47 Last PSA 10 sold – $51
The Joga Bonito is by far the most plentiful case hit by this year. Having a PSA 10 price of $51 shows that. There are numbered but with the design they don’t stand out like base cards do. For being a case hit in such an important set it’s a shame they don’t extend the checklist to cut down on the print run.
2022-23 Topps Chrome Hobby Master (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~300 Total PSA Graded – 29 PSA 10 Pop – 16 Last PSA 10 sold – $177
With a print run of around 300 the Hobby master is a bit high but still manageable. The design is pretty good as its full bleed. It’s just a shame there aren’t colored parallels of these. They would’ve looked so good and been so desirable.
2022-23 Topps Finest The Man Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~800 Total PSA Graded – Too Early PSA 10 Pop – Too Early Last PSA 10 sold – $130.50 for /75
The Man design is one that people seem to like. There are just so many. Another one where the numbered parallels don’t stick out as much as other cards so the values likely won’t correlate to the rarity. Topps Finest hasn’t been out long enough for a lot of these to be back from grading, but I would say they will get a little more credit than Joga Bonita but not a lot.
2022-23 Merlin Chrome Renaissance Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~600 Total PSA Graded – 21 PSA 10 Pop – 13 Last PSA 10 sold – $222.50
Renaissance is a design I tend to like. Has a bit of a Stained Glass feel and pretty colorful. There are just too many base to get me excited. I do think the color are very interesting as there are only 10 red and the Superfractor. It’s still pretty early in the grading cycle for these so it will be interesting to see where the PSA 10s settle. $222.50 feels a bit high when you compare them to the Hobby Master but only time will tell.
2022-23 Topps Chrome Hidden Gems (Search On eBay)
Print Run – No clue Total PSA Graded – 2 PSA 10 Pop – 1 Last PSA 9 sold – $338
Hidden Gems are the only card that Topps did not give odds on this year so they are a bit of a mystery as to how many were printed. They are clearly short print, I am just not sure how short. According to 130 point 12 have sold so I don’t think they are super short compared to some we will get to later. I do think they are by far the shortest of all the Topps case hits though. Only 2 have been graded by PSA so far but that is likely because many are sitting in bulk waiting to come back. From personal experience I know the few I have seen in person raw were not PSA 10s so that could also be why. This will be a fun one to keep track of over time. $338 for a PSA 9 feels high but it was the only graded one to hit the market so that plays a big part.
2022-23 Stadium Club Beam Team (Search On eBay)
Print Run – No clue Total PSA Graded – 8 PSA 10 Pop – 3 Last SGC 10 sold – $130
For some reason Topps never put out the pack odds for 2022-23 Stadium Club Chrome. That means I have no idea how many Lionel Messi Beam Teams there are. There seem to be plenty even though only 8 are graded so far. There are numbered parallels as well. These things are going for pretty cheap raw so if you believe that SGC 10 sale might not be the worst idea to send a couple away.
Panini Lionel Messi Soccer Card Case Hits
2022 World Cup Prizm National Pride (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~400 PSA Graded – 61 PSA 10 Pop – 33 Last PSA 10 sold – $552
Lionel Messi only made his way into two of the 2022 World Cup Prizm inserts. The National Pride was the most plentiful. This card feels more special now that he won the World Cup. They aren’t all that rare but they will likely always be coveted.
2022 World Cup Prizm Color Wheel (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~200 PSA Graded – 45 PSA 10 Pop – 16 Last PSA 10 sold – $3550
The World Cup Prizm Color Wheels were not included in every case so they are definitely shorter print than the other main case hits. How much less it not known. Since they were known to be less than a case hit they are getting more respect than they possibly deserve. As you can see the Pop 10 pop of the Color Wheels is about half of the National Prides yet the price is almost 7x as much. Will be interesting the see where the pop reports settle as time goes on.
2022-23 Donruss Kaboom (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~150 PSA Graded – 52 PSA 10 Pop – 34 Last PSA 10 sold – $3100
I thought I had a pretty good grasp on 2022 Donruss Kaboom print runs until panini decided to stack Donruss Tmall cases with case hits. It’s a bit of a shame they did as the case hits before Tmall were relatively low. Kaboom always get a ton of hobby respect so no surprise to see the prices. What I do find interesting is that so many are gemming. PSA not caring about back centering has helped greatly in that. While not technically a World Cup product this is a 2022-23 set and he is in an Argentina kit. In the long run who knows if that narrative holds but it will certainly be tried by sellers of this card.
2022 Donruss Night Moves (Search On Ebay)
Print Run ~150 PSA Graded – 31 PSA 10 Pop – 22 Last PSA 10 sold – $950
Much like with Kaboom the Night Moves got a bump in pop thanks to Donruss Tmall. I have been in the camp that Night Moves were a bit underappreciated for much of the year despite reminding me of a vertical Color Blast. They look much better in hand than in a picture in my opinion. They seem to be getting a little more appreciation lately. Even so they still sell for about 1/3 of Kabooms despite currently having a lower Pop 10 count. that shows how powerful the Kaboom brand is.
2022 Obsidian Color Blast (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~125 PSA Graded – 11 PSA 10 Pop – 3 Last PSA 9 sold – $720
Speaking of Color Blast Messi had another one in 2022-23 Obsidian. It’s his 3rd Color Blast but his first in an Argentina kit. Hopefully Panini stops making Messi Color Blasts now that he has a Barcelona, a PSG and an Argentina one. Not a lot of have been graded yet and a PSA 10 is yet to sell. If Panini does stop making them these should be highly coveted. The problem is in 2022-23 Obsidian they put the 2nd Cristiano Ronaldo Juventus Color Blast so only time will tell if Messi continues to get them. That is the one thing I greatly appreciated about 2022 World Cup Prizm National Landmarks, they didn’t double up players. I hope that means they never will and you can buy a Messi 2018 Prizm National Landmarks with confidence.
2022-23 Select FIFA Stained Glass (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~33 PSA Graded – 9 PSA 10 Pop – 6 Last PSA 10 sold – $4500
2022-23 Select La Liga Stained Glass (Search on eBay)
Print Run ~24 PSA Graded – 12 PSA 10 Pop – 6 Last PSA 10 sold – $2250
Only 1 of the 3 Select player case hits was known to the soccer card hobby. That being Stained Glass. As you can see Messi got placed in all 3 case hits in both 2022-23 Select FIFA and La Liga. While both of these have small print runs his Barcelona kit Stained Glass is slightly less and under 25. Outside of the 2022-23 Select Serie A Stained Glass you won’t find an unnumbered case hits this short print in the soccer card hobby. I personally thing these are the best looking Panini Stained Glass designs they have made so far. The color really pops. The fact they are so short print is just icing on the cake. I do think the FIFA looks better than the La Liga just based on color match. I am not sure it looks twice as good as the current last sold dictates but Messi in Argentina kit stuff is the current flavor while before the Wrold Cup it was Barcelona kit cards. Will be interesting to see if that evens back up over time or if this being a World Cup year product carries weight.
2022-23 Select FIFA Visionary (Search on eBay)
Print Run ~40 PSA Graded – 4 PSA 10 Pop – 2 Last raw sold – $151
2022-23 Select La Liga Visionary (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~28 PSA Graded – 4 PSA 10 Pop – 2 Last raw sold – $130
Here is where things get a bit nutty in my opinion and one of the reasons I wanted to do this article. I knew the Select case hits, especially the La Liga had very short print runs and I have been in the market for those since they have been released. When I saw the prices these were getting I knew I needed to start buying. Yes, full disclosure I own some of the Select case hits I will be talking about. If you want to say I am pumping my bag feel free. All of this info was in my product reviews.
Look at these raw sold prices for these short print run Lionel Messi soccer cards. There hasn’t even been a graded copy sold. That alone should raise flags. How does these prices make any sense? Is it that people don’t like the Visionary design? They are quite colorful and pop so that seems a bit hard to believe. I didn’t see people complaining about the design and definitely saw some positive feedback. Do people not know they are case hits? I think when these came out and people were breaking them it was known they were case hits. Especially if you read my product reviews. is it the fact people consider both the insert the same even though he is in different kits? If so, there would still only be ~68 total which is way less than any non select case hits. If you have some ideas let me know. I do have a theory below after I cover the Artistic Impressions.
2022 Select FIFA Artistic Impressions (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~40 PSA Graded – 9 PSA 10 Pop – 8 Last PSA 10 sold – $243.50
2022 Select La Liga Artistic Impressions (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~28 PSA Graded – 7 PSA 10 Pop – 3 Last PSA 9 sold – $77
You can see that the Artistic Impressions have the same print runs as the Visionary yet the prices are EVEN LOWER! You could’ve bought a PSA 9 case hit of a Lionel Messi case hit with a print run of ~28 for $77. I personally like the design of these as it reminds a bit of some old Noir cards but I can see why some people wouldn’t like the design. It is not flashy like the market seems to like more. That said these are cards that I have focused on and not only Messi simply because the print runs are so low.
So here is my theory as to why these prices may be so low. Select was broken up into 4 different sets with 4 different print runs. Serie A, La Liga and FIFA combined had less than Premier League by a pretty good margin. Therefore, the Premier League case hits get sold all the time because they are anywhere from 3-6x as plentiful as these others. When you don’t see exact comps for Lionel Messi case hits maybe people went to other players and saw the prices the EPL cards were getting and didn’t know the difference in print runs? For instance if you look at Erling Haaland as a comp for Messi but they shouldn’t be that comparable. I know it sounds silly but the only other thing I can come up with is the first one of these went under the radar from Asia and in this market people were too afraid to pay above comps on an insert they had never seen before. As I said above this is an article I would love feedback on. Please comment on the social media posts I make on Twitter and Instagram of why you think the Visionary and Artistic Impressions are so low. For the record Cristiano Ronaldo has the exact same Select case hits as Messi so all of this applies to his cards as well.
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**UPDATE FOR 2023 Topps MLS Products
2023 Topps Chrome MLS Pearlers Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~120 Total PSA Graded – 8 PSA 10 Pop – 5 Last PSA 10 sold – $500
The Pearlers cards not only comes in base but in Orange /25, Red /5 and Superfractor 1/1. It seems to be a love it or hate it design. For me it looks too much like a Leaf card. The print run falls close to Color Blast for base but it sells for much less. It’s still pretty close to release so the pop counts are still relatively low.
2023 Topps Chrome MLS Let’s Go Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~50 Total PSA Graded – 3 PSA 10 Pop – 3 Last raw sold – $450
The Let’s Go has a Red /5 and a Superfractor 1/1 version as well. It is an interesting case hit from a design and print run perspective. It would seem to me to be more appealing than the Pearlers with less than half the print run. The price seems to reflect that. There have only been 3 base graded so far and they have all got 10s.
2023 Topps Finest Hologlow Base (Search On eBay)
Print Run ~85 Total PSA Graded – Too early PSA 10 Pop – Too early Last raw sold – $220
The Topps Finest Hologlow is definitely a different design that seems to be liked by collectors. At a print run of ~85 its pretty limited though it does have Gold /50, Orange /25, Red /5 and Superfractor 1/1. It’s still early but this is another that I am not sure people will realize how rare it is and the price might not reflect it.
2023 Topps Finest MLS Finest Idols (Search On eBay)
Print Run Bronze 100, Silver 50, Gold 25 Total PSA Graded – Too early PSA 10 Pop – Too early Last raw sold – Bronze $750 Silver $1250
The Topps Finest Idols aren’t a case hit and they are quite abnormal. For the 1st time Topps gave Lionel Messi his own insert. These cards are hard to hit but they aren’t all that rare. Most people that are listing them are putting the pack odds and not the print run because it looks more impressive. These cards have a very nice design and are full bleed which many love. I will be interested to see if the prices hold where they are now as it would put these as some of Messi’s more expensive insterts which would feel weird for a Miami MLS card.
So What Drives Soccer Card Prices?
So there is all the data as it stands right now but what does it all mean? Soccer card pricing surely isn’t an exact science. It is far from it as you can see here. It is some mix of rarity, design, set and hype. Ultimately it comes down to supply and demand. It’s just a matter of how long it takes for prices to settle and what causes the demand. We mostly know the ultimate supply although when it becomes available for sale also plays a huge role in prices. We have to remember that we are still very early in the soccer card hobby. yes it has been a round a while but the majority of collectors came post boom. there has been a recent boom in Michael Jordan inserts and think about how long they have been around. I certainly don’t have a crystal ball to know what will happen In the future. this article, like everything on SoccerCardsHQ, is not meant to tell you what to buy. It’s to provide the information for you to decide what you want to buy. As I said above this is an article that I would love feedback on and a public discussion to be had. I think it would help all of us.
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